Is Our Optimism Threatening Our Very Survival?

I happened to come across a recent blog post of a Director of a known environmental organisation. Writing on the current environmental situation and resulting crisis that we are facing the Director lets out that she is an ‘Optimist’. What struck me in the article was the endearing human quality of drawing a silver lining in the dark of the smog that now envelopes us.

Psychologists have told us that optimists are happy people. They are able to cope with adversity because they see the glass as half full. Instead of crying over the many lemons that life gifts them they use it to make lemonade, not to ‘drown their sorrows’. This ability to rummage through the rubble to find something salvageable has stood us in good stead in dealing with our personal problems.

But is it something that will ensure the survival of the human species?

The Predicament

According to recent reports, plastics have been found in the stomachs of the creatures living in the deepest bowels of the ocean. Finding this synthetic fibre in beings that live 11 kms deep in the sea is a consequence of the 8.5 billion tonnes of plastic produced since the 1950s. Scientists have found plastic in 83% of global tap water samples. The World Health Organisation has announced a review on the potential risks of plastics in drinking water after recent studies determined that 90% of sampled popular bottled water contained plastic.

As 2017 came to an end, there were reports indicating that it would be the hottest year on record. In January 2017, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated that 2016 was the warmest year. It wont be surprising if we are told at the fag end of 2018 that it was the hottest year on record. According to the NOAA, the US is still assessing the cost of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria, but till Oct 6 2017 there have been “15 weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States.” Right now the 'Beast from the East' has a large chunk of the world in its jaws. 

Data shows that there has been a 50% increase in flooding and rains worldwide in the last decade. While we are at it lets not discuss the threat of ‘biodiversity oblivion’ in Europe as the Guardian so eloquently put it.

The Lancet Countdown is an international research collaboration “dedicated to tracking the world's response to climate change, and the health benefits that emerge from this transition”. The report for 2017 arrives at three (3)conclusions :-

· “The human symptoms of climate change are unequivocal and potentially irreversible`

· The delayed response to climate change over the past 25 years has jeopardised human life and livelihoods.

· The past 5 years have seen an accelerated response, and in 2017 momentum is building across a number of sectors; the direction of travel is set, with clear and unprecedented opportunities for public health.”

Combined with this is the news that we are in the middle of a ‘great insect die off’. Over the last few months, the Guardian has been reporting on species dying because of “habitat destruction, over-hunting, toxic pollution, invasion by alien species and climate change.” The biomass of flying insects in Germany has dropped by 3/4ths since 1989. Insects are pollinators, keep the soil fertile, are fed on and feed off each other. This is a disaster that not many speak of.

Cause for Optimism?

In such circumstances, being an optimist puts to shade the fable of the ‘Ant and the Grasshopper’.

Sure we have ‘accelerated our response to climate change’ but that is just one theatre of war. We have launched an unprecedented attack on ourselves, and therefore the planet, on various fronts at a scale that is jaw dropping.

However, we scour through all this for that silver lining.

I would hazard a guess that the current levels of optimism are a mix of the ‘superman effect’ -  a potent mix of righteousness, vanity, high levels of self belief in ones abilities and the work one is doing mixed with the inability and even unwillingness to see the ‘whole picture’. As a race we are keen to juggle many balls or multi-task but are we really equipped to handle and solve these many problems all at once?

Given the Augean stables that we have constructed for ourselves and now live in, what can the answer be?  

In such a situation the optimism that many feel is a rose tinted lens that prevents an honest view of the true value and impact of the work vis-a-vis the gargantuan problem. The belief in the effectiveness of the work is akin to that of the pre-iceberg Titanic, therefore opportunity for course corrections are limited or don’t exist. It goes without saying that each NGO does what it is best at according to its vision and philosophy. Collectively they are like fish bowls placed side-by-side each with a single fish in each of them.

Based on the work being done in our current circumstances one has to question the credibility of this optimism. Is this positivity for the future blindsiding us to the real extent of the threat and the viability of our endeavours to contain it?  How different is it from the belief the French had on their Maginot Line? Optimism is about making the best of a bad situation. It is not about misreading a situation. Are we misinterpreting what optimism stands for and the efficacy of our work? Is this therefore threatening our survival?

Covfefe - A word malleable enough for all situations

On his campaign trail Trump had spoken highly of his education and his knowledge of words. In fact, when he was criticising President Obama he had said ‘I went to an Ivy league school, I am very highly educated. I know words, I have the best words…..’. He proved that when he forged ‘bigly’ and ‘unpresidented’. These words, and the many to come, though currently indecipherable may in the future be juxtaposed with his actions and thereby meaning be derived for both - word and deed.

Trumps 31^st May early morning tweet introducing the world to his new word ‘covfefe’ left the world agog. Though the word uses English alphabets its etymology is for anyone to guess as is its meaning. This is a good thing, because the word is not beholden to any one language making it truly global. Further it allows one to work with the word to see what Trump-created-situations most befit its usage.

Trump made the term ‘you are fired’, used so brilliantly by him in ‘The Apprentice’ a household expression. This phrase exuded power and indicated who the boss and minion were. Therefore it would have come as no surprise if Trump thought he could use it during his tenure at the White House. However, this phrase has a very limiting jurisdiction and does not do justice to the vast powers that come with being the President of the United States of America. The word ‘covfefe’ may have many ways of pronunciation but it means just one thing and there are no two ways about that. It has the potential to not only describe a Trumpian world but also emotions raised by Trumps decisions. Though Trump introduced this word a bit late in the day it does help bigly.

Would ‘you are fired’ have made sense to the Native Americans whose lands, water and way of life are threatened by the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) that Trump has okayed? Of course it wouldn’t because they are not Trump employees, they are American citizens. With the signing of Executive Orders that advanced the approval of the pipeline Trump has presidentially told these people ‘You Are Covfefed’. The use of ‘covfefe’ in such a expression makes utmost sense as it highlights their plight and predicament, this pipeline not only goes through their sacred grounds in complete disregard of their heritage but also endangers water bodies like Lake Oahe and the Missouri River.

This is just one example of the potential of ‘covfefe’, and was restricted to the United States of America.

Infact, ‘covfefe’ does justice to the dominion Trump has over the world. When he signed the Global Gag Rule which bans  his governments funding to international NGOs that offer abortions in other countries while also stopping the funding to the  United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) which provides family-planning and reproductive-health services to women and girls in more than 150 countries he covfefed the lifes of millions. The impact of such a covfefed-up order was such that European countries came together to fill the atleast 600 million USD vacuum with a beginning of 32.5 million USD.

Trumps under the surface simmering desire to leave no stone unturned to covfefe-things-up has gone beyond boundaries, friends and foes. One  saw him curtsying to the King of Saudi Arabia and promising them a good deal on American weapons which meant he was going to covfefe American business. However, in this instance one needs to add to the current connotation of covfefe with ‘back-stabbing’. Trump intended to Make America Great Again by giving a bargain to the Saudis, who he has belaboured as being the fount of terrorism, at the cost of American business. How covfefed-up is that?

One will ignore Trumps lack of knowledge of geography so flagrantly displayed in his conversations in Israel and carry on to Europe. In Europe he not only made the US a pariah at the NATO summit but came up second best in the encounter with the French President Macron. It would be totally understandable if Trump was feeling covfefed after that bone crushing encounter.

But even after Trump retreated to his cave to lick his wounds post his first international tour he promised more. After introducing covfefe to the world he later tweeted on the same day “I will be announcing my decision on Paris Accord, Thursday at 3:00 P.M. The White House Rose Garden. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” then on the 1^st of June he posted ‘Join me live at the @WhiteHouse’ after his “We’re getting out” speech he tweeted ‘My job as President is to do everything within my power to give America a level playing field. #Americafirstus’. This was the cherry on the bringing-back-coal cake. With these decisions he has surpassed the human powers of the American President by not only covfefing this generation but the generations to come. His power is so ‘unpresidented’ that without pressing the Red Button (not to order a coke but a nuclear strike) he has covfefed the planet.

President Trump has had the opportunity to fire his National Security Adviser General Michael Flynn and the FBI Director James Comey. I am not sure whether Trump used ‘you are fired’ to show them the door. But I bet atleast one of them is now fantasising about his deposition at the Congressional hearings and how covffed Trump will be after that.  

Mr. Jairam Ramesh’s bold proposal had possibilities

India wants the world to recognize it as a nuclear and emerging economic power but does not want to take the responsibility that comes along with it. This is seen in the ongoing climate negotiations where the Indian position is no different from that of developing countries and China. This position is based on historic emissions of the developed countries. India, the developing and less developed world, countries that form the non-Annexe 1, do not have binding carbon emission targets as laid down in the Kyoto Protocol. This has lead the United States of America and others to not ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh nicely summed up India’s position when he stated that India’s per capita emissions will always be less than that of developed nations.

This stance which India held for almost 2 decades was in muddy waters a few days earlier. A letter from Mr. Jairam Ramesh the Indian Minster for Environment and Forests to the Prime Minister states that India should no longer toe this line and should break from the G 77 developing country ranks and take on emission reduction targets. The letter went on to suggest that this be done without any counter guarantees of finance and technology.

Politicians (both from the ruling party and BJP), and civil society groups saw the suggestion as detrimental to India and to other developing countries. Even though not much has been made public from this letter one does discern a ‘out of the box thinking’, which takes a relook at India’s international stature in and outside these talks.

The recently concluded UN climate talks in Bangkok saw the G77 countries staging a walk-out. Negotiators were trying to find ways to get countries including the US to accept binding targets this lead to fears that developed countries were trying to dilute their emission responsibilities in the new climate pact due in December. The need for a global climate compact is a no-brainer however it needs a leader to step up to the plate. Though the US sees itself as a world leader it has effectively destroyed the Kyoto Protocol and may just do the same in Copenhagen.

Jairam Ramesh saw this debilitating vacuum in the ongoing climate negotiations and proposed India take up pole position. This suggestion would have done many things -first it would have recognised India’s technical prowess, second it would have coerced the US and others to play game and alienated the Chinese and mostly importantly there were political and economic reasons for such a proposition clearly elucidated by Ramesh earlier ‘We are not doing the world a favour; rather we are doing ourselves a favour by undertaking these actions'.

Estimates from ASSOCHAM suggest that from July, 2008 to February, 2009, average annual CER from CDM projects grew by 20.92% from 218,345,930 to 264,022,976 respectively. However at the same time Indian companies are earning CERs through technical innovation, for example the Tata Steel plant in Jamshedpur has installed a Top Pressure Recovery Turbine to generate electricity replacing power from a coal powered thermal plant. Their Clean Development Mechanism Project Design Document Form states that approximately 66.68 GWh of electrical energy per annum will be generated which would lead to a reduction of 60,811 tonnes of CO2 per annum, which is the expected amount of annual CERs. According to the annual report of ITC, the ITC Sonar hotel in Kolkatta is the only project in the building sector that is earning CERs. There are other innovations that are reaching the lay person. TataBP and New Delhi Power Limited (NPDL) are planning to install solar panels on residential rooftops in Delhi which will be connected to the grid, this will not only generate power but provide additional income to households if they choose to sell the additional power to the grid.

Mr Ramesh saw the climate negotiations as a real opportunity for India to make a global mark. The new position suggested by the minister embarrasses developed countries to better their emission targets because the suggestion is being made by a poorer country. India would have become the ‘gold standard’ and provided relieve to developing nations who till date have not been very successful in forcing the developed world to reduce their emissions. A few weeks earlier the minister acknowledged that the Indian position is not favoured by small island states and others thereby recognizing the uncertain future the small island states face and the traditional role India played being non-conducive to the talks. His new suggestion indicated that India was in a position to do something more and provided a direction on how it intended to go about it

The new stance was a diplomatic barb against the Chinese who have been very active against India in the past months. The minister’s proposal would have isolated the Chinese internationally as they do not want to take emission commitments - a major reason for the failure of the Kyoto Protocol. This shows a high level of maturity in dealing with the Chinese who have found ways to constantly unsettle India. In dealing with China in such a manner India shifts focus to its positives while directing international pressure on the Chinese for its bull headedness. The proposal which would have plugged the flaring nostrils of the dragon has been nixed and the elephant has got into a warm embrace with the dragon.

A recent Maplecroft study states that between 1980 and 2008 the mean annual natural disaster economic loss was 1600 million dollars for India. An Oxfam study predicts that there will be a 9 to 13 per cent of loss of GDP by 2010 due to climate related disasters. The recent few months have seen India swing between droughts and floods. A lack of water in reservoirs and rivers not only threatened agriculture but power generation faced a dip. Then in October floods destroyed paddy in Andhra Pradesh, submerged the hydel power station in Srisalem, while also rendering over 1.80 lakh people homeless in northern Karnataka.

The suggestion made by the minister is path breaking and commendable because it sees the threat of climate change and the opportunities that come from mitigating it; these include improving the Indian economy, making it climate resilient and enhancing India’s position internationally.

Mr Jairam Ramesh had made the first step and it should have been taken further. However shortsightedness on the part of those who claim to speak for equity and for the rest of political India ensured that India remains like the veritable Indian crab.

Financing climate change

Twill get cold in summer
And rain clouds will fill desert skies
Fingers then point at things like the Hummer
As people mouth plaintive why’s.

Money does Pandora’s Box open
tis cause of climate change too
Sippin’ a coke with bags full of shoppin’
Energised by coal, but out of view

The high incomes and easy loans,
through energy created by subsidised coal
Fuel larger cars and bigger homes
And on the climate they take their toll.